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First Principles Thinking

6/24/2023

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I am a great believer in starting advice or presentations on complex topics from first principles, setting out the basics before exploring the more intricate issues. Even talking to an audience of so-called experts, it is quite hard to know precisely what level of knowledge everybody has reached in their occupation or profession. Time and again I have seen otherwise excellent presentations which have “assumed” the knowledge level of their audience. This results in a failure by at least some to grasp the more complex issuers and detracts from the value and effect of the overall delivery. The bible starts with the Book of Genesis without which a lot of the books which follow would not make sense.

The same is true when as professionals we are first presented with a new contract to negotiate or a patient to assess. It is easy to assume knowledge because you have “done it before” and therefore that this negotiation or diagnosis will be the same – jumping too readily to conclusions. To paraphrase, with apologies for a second week, from The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy the “Ruler of the Universe” lives on a shack with his cat on a planet within an improbability field and  “appears very deferential and largely uncertain on almost every front. He believes nothing unless he can prove it by seeing it himself”.

This may be going a bit far but working a problem from first principles is a powerful approach generally. See this article First Principles: The Building Blocks of True Knowledge which comments:

“First-principles thinking is one of the best ways to reverse-engineer complicated problems and unleash creative possibility. Sometimes called “reasoning from first principles,” the idea is to break down complicated problems into basic elements and then reassemble them from the ground up. It’s one of the best ways to learn to think for yourself, unlock your creative potential, and move from linear to non-linear results.”
It cites Aristotle who defined first principles as “the first basis from which a thing is known.”  and Elon Musk who said “You have to build up the reasoning from the ground up—“from the first principles” is the phrase that’s used in physics”. And “I think it’s important to reason from first principles rather than by analogy.”

See also this article First Principles: Elon Musk on the Power of Thinking for Yourself which commences:
“First principles thinking, which is sometimes called reasoning from first principles, is one of the most effective strategies you can employ for breaking down complicated problems and generating original solutions.”

It also quotes examples observing “…the process of first principles thinking ….is a cycle of breaking a situation down into the core pieces and then putting them all back together in a more effective way. Deconstruct then reconstruct.”

Elon Musk wanted to send a spaceship to Mars but discovered “the cost of purchasing a rocket was astronomical—up to $65 million” so he “said, okay, let’s look at the first principles. What is a rocket made of? Aerospace-grade aluminum alloys, plus some titanium, copper, and carbon fiber. Then I asked, what is the value of those materials on the commodity market? It turned out that the materials cost of a rocket was around two percent of the typical price.”

As professionals we sometimes refer to having the “pieces all over the floor” when we know we have a lot of work still to do; but at least we then know what all the building blocks are.

If you are a true expert in your field, you will readily be able to construct a theory or a presentation from the ground up applying first principle thinking. See this article What Is First Principles Thinking? 3 Popular Approaches and How to Apply Them which says “Sometimes called “reasoning from first principles,” first principles thinking is the practice of questioning every assumption you think you know about a given problem, then creating new solutions from scratch. It’s one of the best ways to unlock creative solutions to complicated problems.” 

And describes the difference with analogy:

First principles thinking requires you to break down previous assumptions and barriers of problems to create a completely innovative solution.

In contrast, reasoning by analogy is solving problems based on prior assumptions and widely accepted best practices.

It also suggests using the Socratic method, a systematic approach to asking and answering questions This really resonates with me as an interrogative approach in the early stages of any project really helps to obtain a fundamental understanding of the problem and start to see possible solutions.

Thus, the true expert can start their talk or project from first principles and build on that platform. That person will truly understand the building blocks of their knowledge and be able to convey them  to others. Also, if things do go wrong in a project or other professional situation, this expert will have a far better chance of correcting the situation as they will truly understand the fundamental building blocks and how they may be shifting.

This all sounds so obvious why don’t we always start from first principles? I suggest that the enemy to this approach, especially in this age of instant electronic communication, is – time. The problems we are presented with as professionals are expressed to be so urgent, we decide we don’t have enough time to think them through thoroughly. See this Harvard Business Publishing blog To Improve Critical Thinking, Don’t Fall into the Urgency Trap which observes that:

“Too often at work, people rely on expertise and past experiences to jump to a conclusion. Yet research consistently shows that when we rush decisions, we often regret them—even if they end up being correct.
Why we hasten decision making is quite clear. We’re inundated with incessant distractions that compete for our attention, and, at the same time, we’re facing profound pressure to go faster and drive our businesses forward, even when the path ahead is unclear.

In the aftermath of information overwhelm, evolving technology, and rapidly changing business environments, people often unconsciously fall into a pernicious paradox called the “urgency trap.””

It then recommends several ways to overcome this including:
  • Question Assumptions and Biases
  • Reason Through Logic
  • Listen Actively and Openly
​This is particularly pertinent if you use some form of Artificial Intelligence (AI) which can be very useful in helping build a quick response, but can also “hallucinate” and provide the wrong answer as happened to some litigation lawyers in New York recently. If you have understood and grasped the issues at a first principles level it will be so much easier to evaluate this sort of input.

When we are children we all start learning from first principles, but we quickly get put in our place by adults who tell us this is how it is because I say so. Jim Collins in his book Good to Great analysed the factors which make an organisation not just good , but great. A great lawyer or doctor or commercial director will seek to understand the root cause of an issue they are dealing with. A good professional who is competent and diligent, but who nevertheless does not do this, will find it much harder if the going gets tough and some of the underlying “assumed” first principles shift or change.

As Plato sagely observed:
“There's no chance of their having a conscious glimpse of the truth as long as they refuse to disturb the things they take for granted and remain incapable of explaining them. For if your starting-point is unknown, and your end-point and intermediate stages are woven together out of unknown material, there may be coherence, but knowledge is completely out of the question.”

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Have a Panic Room

6/17/2023

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It is Friday afternoon and you as the general counsel had been hoping to beat the traffic by leaving early for that long-awaited weekend away. You are however, to use a Brummie (Birmingham) slang expression, “rammed” with work. You have just about managed to get the three critical contracts your team are negotiating into a position where nothing will happen until at least Monday; you have dealt with an urgent advice request from the CEO; and delegated four new projects to your team.

Then a Teams message pops up at around 4.30 – not earlier because then you might have more time to deal with it, but not later because you might have gone by then or at least signed out. “Please can I ask a quick question?” messages your director of sales. You call on Teams, with a sinking feeling. She is apologetic, but explains that somehow legal and commercial  has been missed off the review team on a bid for a must win multi million pound contract that has to be submitted as a BAFO (Best and Final Offer) by 10am on Monday. The three hundred pages of contract documentation need to be reviewed and any “key” issues flagged. We also have to draft the finance schedule because only our team understands the financial model. The agreement otherwise uses customer paper that you know will be one sided and high risk.

A very natural reaction in this situation, however experienced you are, is a feeling of panic to some degree. The so called “fight or flight” syndrome kicks in. This Harvard Medical Understanding the stress response explains this very cogently:

“A stressful situation — whether something environmental, such as a looming work deadline, or psychological, such as persistent worry about losing a job — can trigger a cascade of stress hormones that produce well-orchestrated physiological changes. A stressful incident can make the heart pound and breathing quicken. Muscles tense and beads of sweat appear.

This combination of reactions to stress is also known as the "fight-or-flight" response because it evolved as a survival mechanism, enabling people and other mammals to react quickly to life-threatening situations.”
It goes onto to say how:

“When someone experiences a stressful event, the amygdala, an area of the brain that contributes to emotional processing, sends a distress signal to the hypothalamus. This area of the brain functions like a command center, communicating with the rest of the body through the nervous system so that the person has the energy to fight or flee.”

It also recommends some techniques for dealing with this sort of pressure – relaxation, physical activity and social support.

Over a decade ago I wrote a short book One,Two,Three, Four which developed my personal experience from a near disaster in a plane crash to overcoming personal challenges and into a philosophy of living in the now. I am not here promoting the book but refer to it because I advocated in a work (or life) crisis taking some sort of time to step back and evaluating the situation as calmly as possible.

Staying for a moment with the plane theme I found this article 3 Things Pilots Know About Crisis Management which supports this approach:

“…..pilots are trained in crisis management. We’re taught to think through a range of potential mishaps, memorize checklists, and plot courses of action in advance. Executives can do the same. You can never foresee every crisis, but if you plan for the worst, you’ll be ready for action–and you won’t be stuck winging it.”

And advocates:
1.Have emergency checklists;
2.Appear confident and in control even if you don’t feel it;
3.Eliminate surprises and plan ahead.

This is what I want to build on: it is not possible to predict the exact work crisis I have outlined – though a better and closer relationship might be called for with the sales team! However, you can and should as a professional person with a lot of responsibility have a plan for this sort of eventuality. Have a metaphorical “panic room” you can go to having thought out beforehand what you may do in this sort of situation. This could involve as a first step taking a short break to clear your mind (get a tea or coffee) and then evaluating the challenge and potential solutions as calmly as possible, talking to others in your team and working out some feasible options. In this particular situation these could include:
  • Discussing with colleagues in other functions such as the technical and financial teams to understand the deal more fully;
  • Looking at the contract briefly and discussing the real risk areas with the sales director and her team – is this a bet the company deal involving state of the art technology and AI services – or is it a more mainstream standard service provided by your business;
  • Being flexible and reviewing your own plans to see if they could be adjusted to accommodate this crisis – last year I closed a deal with a Dutch lawyer when he was in his car taking his family on holiday!
  • Seeing how your own team is fixed and whether they have any capacity;
  • Cultivating relationships with external law firms who could help and who have some knowledge of your business – yes you may ruin their weekends as well BUT they will probably have more resources available – and they will get paid for and should welcome the chance to help a key client out in a crisis.
That epic book the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams foretold the advent of tablet computers in the form of the actual guide on the front of which were two words “Don’t Panic”. The book explains “this was partly because the device looked insanely complicated to operate, and partly to keep intergalactic travellers from panicking.”

This is easy to say and harder to do, but managing such a situation is also an opportunity for personal growth and development and a way to enhance the perceived value of your function with the rest of the business. It should generally be seen as a positive challenge which really helps in its resolution.

As Charles de Gaulle, former president of France said “Faced with crisis, the man of character falls back on himself. He imposes his own stamp of action, takes responsibility for it, makes it his own.”

While John F. Kennedy sagely observed “When written in Chinese, the word ‘crisis’ is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity.”
​

And for a concluding comment I really like this quote from Martin Luther King Jr.“The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in the moments of comfort, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.”

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The Power of Persistence

6/10/2023

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This week I assembled a new two drawer filing cabinet I purchased as a flat pack from Amazon. As with many such assemblies it was far more complex and time consuming than I thought. Imagine my frustration when after all my hard work, following the instructions carefully (or so I thought), neither of the drawers would fit into the cabinet. My first thought as it often is in such situations (because it is easy to blame somebody else) was that I had been sent the wrong parts – but on reflection I realised it was more likely to be operator error. So, I persisted, put aside my frustration, and reviewed how I had constructed the two drawers – and sure enough I realised that I had put the runners on the wrong way round. Once this was corrected all was fine, I am now the proud owner of a new fully operational filing cabinet – well not quite as I had to raid Amazon again for some filing slings which I had forgotten.

There are many attributes professional people need to exhibit – I asked ChatGPT what qualities a professional person should have, and it came up with an impressive list of ten in about 20 seconds:
  • Expertise
  • Reliability
  • Adaptability
  • Communication skills
  • Time management
  • Professionalism
  • Problem-solving
  • Continuous learning
  • Interpersonal skills
  • Integrity
All valid, but interestingly this misses the one key attribute I suggest any professional person must have to succeed – persistence or perseverance. AI is not infallible! If you have a difficult contract negotiation or a patient with a complex illness, you can’t just give up and throw in the towel because it is all too much. I think perseverance, refusing to give up and sheer bloody mindedness are attributes we should all exhibit and expect of our colleagues. I remember a story I was told once about a trainee solicitor who was working late at night (persevering) when a partner passed on the way home, saw they were still there and stopped, took off their coat and sat down to help complete the work – again perseverance.

In the legal profession as in many others you need persistence, whatever jurisdiction you may practice in, just to get the necessary qualifications and work experience to become a practicing lawyer and get into the profession in the first place. I propose that this quality will then stand you in good stead throughout the inevitable ups and downs of your career.

See this blog What Are Persistence Skills? (With Examples) which defines persistence as “a personality trait that is characterized by the determination to achieve a goal despite the obstacles and delays that you may encounter” and “a soft skill that is important for professionals because your ability to overcome challenges will give you confidence, endear you to your coworkers, and open up new opportunities”. It then suggests ways to improve this attribute.

I also like this Dale Carnegie blog Persistence Visualising Where You Want To Go - 7 Ways to Build the Muscle of Persistence which include:
  • Start with a clear vision.
  • Fall in love with the journey, not just the destination.
  • Have courage to fail.




See this Forbes article The Power Of Persistence which commences with:
in every industry, in every culture, there’s one consistent trend among successful individuals, and that trend is the ability to persevere.

It observes But this is not always natural; it’s a learned trait and goes on to cite examples of famous people who persevered, one of which struck me in particular:

Take Abraham Lincoln, for example. He failed in business at the age of 21. He was defeated in a legislative race at age 22, failed again at business at age 24, overcame the death of his lover at age 26, had a nervous breakdown at age 27, lost a congressional race at 34 and 36, lost a senatorial race at 45, failed to become vice president at 47, lost a senatorial race at 49, and then finally was elected president of the United States of America at age 52.

I found this Harvard Business School article Giving Up Is the Enemy of Creativity which states Recent research of ours finds that one common factor often gets in the way: we tend to undervalue the benefits of persistence. It demonstrates by experiments how much more creative people can be if they persist with a creative task after seemingly running out of ideas citing the following examples.

Consider that Sir James Dyson developed over 5,000 prototypes before he patented his best-selling Dyson vacuum cleaner. Or that Walt Disney animated cartoons for nearly two decades before his first big hit, Snow White and the Seven Dwarves.

And see These 17 Quotes Will Inspire you to Be More Persistent of which I particularly like:

"Energy and persistence conquer all things." - Benjamin Franklin.
"Success is almost totally dependent upon drive and persistence. The extra energy required to make another effort or try another approach is the secret of winning." - Denis Waitley the American motivational speaker.

"Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill.
​
So, to quote the old saying If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again then like me with my filing cabinet you will eventually succeed.

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The Sigmoid Curve - Do Something New

6/3/2023

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As a part of my daily exercise regime, I walk along the roads and then a footpath to our local village instead of jumping in the car and driving. I know the route well as we have lived here for over 20 years. At the end of the footpath, you turn left or right to access the top or bottom of the village high street. However, this week to my great surprise I discovered for the first time a new public pedestrian route between some houses which takes me out right in the centre of the high street. I also found out that my favourite local café in the village has a pretty garden down an alley and round the back.

Why does this matter you may ask; well because it’s illustrative of the importance of doing new things. I am currently reading “Legacy” by James Kerr which was recommended by one of my sons. This is great value on Kindle for £5.99. It explores the reasons for the success of the New Zealand All Blacks observing that “Rugby, like business and like much of life is played primarily in the mind.” It comments that “The haka [the Maori war dance performed by the All Blacks before every game] reminds us of the inherent fragility of life. How little time is given to each of us. And how much we still have to do. It reminds us: this is our time”.

Its theme is then about how the All Blacks overcame a (relative) slump in the first decade of this century and bounced back to win the rugby world cup. It explores how the techniques and processes they used to do this can be applied to our business lives. It comments for example that “A collection of talented individuals without personal discipline will inevitably fail.”

In my context here the book also explores the cyclical nature of all cultures including a team in sport or a business. “Life, business, society and success” are not linear but “subject to a more cyclical process”. It cites Charles Handy who in the book The Empty Raincoat: Making Sense of the Future identifies three distinct phases in this cycle:
  • Learning – like a new CEO getting to grips with a new organisation
  • Growth – being on top of your game
  • Decline – which eventually becomes the painful norm.
There is also a Maturity phase after Growth – see the diagram below. The art or key to working through this process is to recognise that when we are on top of our sporting or professional game – it is time to move on and keep developing. To do something new. “To make what Handy describes as … a series of jumps along the Sigmoid Curve, outwitting inevitability”. James Kerr in Legacy concludes “Go for the gap. When you’re on the top of your game, change your game.”
​​
According to this LinkedIn article The Sigmoid Curve: A Model for Constant Business Growth and Innovation the Sigmoid Curve looks like this:

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In its simplest form, the sigmoid is a representation of time (on the horizontal axis) and activity (on the vertical axis). The wonder of this curve is that it really describes most phenomena, regardless of type.

This Open Education article The Sigmoid Curve says The Sigmoid Curve is the S-shaped curve which has intrigued people since time began.  The Sigmoid Curve sums up the story of life itself. We start slowly, experimentally and falteringly, we wax and then we wane. It is the story of the British Empire – and of the Russian Empire and of all empires always. It is the story of a product’s lifecycle and of many a corporation’s rise and fall.

Importantly it also describes the way out of this inevitable cycle:

Luckily, there is life beyond the curve. The secret of constant growth is to start a new Sigmoid Curve before the first one peters out. The right place to start that second curve is at point A, where there is the time, as well as the resources and the energy, to get the new curve through its initial explorations and flounderings before the first curve begins to dip downwards.
​

Point A is somewhere round the beginning of the maturity phase - see the diagram below. 
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Unfortunately: 
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All that we know of change, be it personal change or change in organizations, tells us that the real energy for change only comes when you are looking disaster in the face, at point B on the first curve.

Point B (see diagram above) is where the decline has already started, and it is really too late.

So how do we recognise in our businesses (and our lives) when we are at Point A and need to take off on another growth cycle? I propose that this requires an individual, function and corporate culture of learning and development which not only sustains the transition from development to growth, but then boosts further growth and maturity phases. Don’t stand still as that will lead to decline,  but learn something new and develop.

See this blog How to Make Sure You Learn Something New Every Day (Plus, Why You Should) by the American business woman Martha Stewart. She cites Frank Elaridi, a wellness coach who says "We all know that it is important to exercise the body, but very little do we talk about the benefits of exercising the mind," and suggests some ways to do this.

And also this WikiHow article How to Learn Something New Every Day which has some helpful suggestions divided into the following themes
  • Seeking Out New Information
  • Learning New Skills
  • Being Receptive to Learning
Some are fairly obvious but are quite useful gathered together. I quite like the recommendation to ask a question of someone like your boss or a co-worker every day.

While this short blog from the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales The benefit of learning new skills at work  says “Spending time learning a new skill has far more benefits than simply learning the skill itself. From a workplace and technological standpoint, investing in learning and self-development will not only help you stay ahead of the curve but maintain your relevance and ensure your future career success.”

As the author and speaker Anthony J D'Angelo says “Develop a passion for learning. If you do, you will never cease to grow."

While Benjamin Franklin observes "Without continual growth and progress, such words as improvement, achievement and success have no meaning."
​

And to go a long way back in time for a concluding thought "The secret of change is to focus all your energy not on fighting the old but on building the new." — Socrates.
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